Businesses, corporations and mainly the fuel industry may find themselves forced to lay off one million American workers.
If President Clinton’s proposed regulations on greenhouse gases are applied, companies will have to lay off workers because the replacement technology will be too expensive to keep all employees, and the workers will not be educated in operating the new technology.
It will be in a company’s best interest to provide reeducation programs for its workers in order to maintain unity in the workplace and to avoid scrutiny from the laid off workers. These programs can either retrain workers to use the new equipment or give them a head start on a new career of their choice.
The Global Warming Problem
Since the Industrial Revolution, America has greatly increased its contribution to global warming. This era can be noted as the beginning of the emission of greenhouse gasses that are generated completely by humans. Currently, the United States alone contributes 25 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. Large industrial plants are the main source of these greenhouse gas emissions.
Carbon dioxide is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. It is released by the refining and combustion of fuels such as oil and coal. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide blocks atmospheric windows which allow heat from the sun to escape after being reflected and radiated from the Earth. When the atmospheric window is blocked, the sun’s heat is reflected back down to Earth in turn, warming it, creating a phenomenon known as global warming.
The effects of global warming vary. Virtually every area of the Earth will be affected differently. One major effect of global warming is the rise in sea level. Many coastal cities may be inundated with water, leaving millions of people all over the world running for higher ground. Also, the agricultural zones may migrate northward because the area they are in now may become too dry for crops, causing a shortage of food. Another effect is the possibility of infectious diseases that may come upon the human population due to major flooding and water borne viruses. Plagues may wipe out entire areas. There are many more concerns about the effects of global warming and possibly some that have yet to be identified.
The Proposed Regulations
President Clinton’s proposed regulations have five main sections. First, the overall goal of the regulations would be to reduce the U.S. emission of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels between the years’ 2008-2012. After this is reached, Clinton would like the U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced below 1990 levels. This plan would reduce emissions by 30 percent based on the conditions that would occur if no regulations were implemented at all, commonly called "business as usual."
Second, a $5 billion five year program is proposed for new technologies that would include tax cuts and funding for research and development (R&D).
Third, an economic incentive would be awarded to key industries if they can create a plan to reduce their emissions within the next nine months.
Fourth, emission reducing projects would include developing countries because they will be the main polluters of the future and this would also prevent industries from moving to developing countries that have less stringent emissions regulations.
Fifth, an emission trading system would be developed in which permits would allow industries to emit a specified amount of greenhouse gases. These permits can be bought and traded but not created. If an industry cuts down on their emissions then it can sell one of its permits to another. This system would be implemented after ten years of "tax incentives, R&D, early credit, electricity reconstructing, Federal efforts, and other measures."
What Industries are faced with
If the proposed regulations are passed, major industries will have to change many aspects of their manufacturing process. The price of converting to more sustainable procedures is overwhelming. For example, Ford Motor CEO Alex Trotman estimated that it would take "billions of dollars to change over a number of engine lines with current technology. "
In order to fight back, many large industries including the United Mine Workers, Ford Motor Co., American Petroleum Institute and the airline industry have worked together to develop a multi-million dollar advertising campaign that shows what would happen to them and the world if emissions are controlled. Also, to combat the proposed regulations, industries are questioning the science behind the rise in carbon dioxide levels over the past 100 years. Trotman and Alcoa’s Paul ONeill agree that there has been warming and an abundance of carbon dioxide emitted into the air but their question is the source. They argue that the rise may be natural or from other sources and that more research is needed before expensive action is taken.
American Electric Power CEO Linn Draper said that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) document that has the signed approval of 2,500 scientists agreeing that global warming is a problem and is caused significantly by the burning and refining of fossil fuels is not accurate because "there aren’t 2,500 people who know enough about this subject to opine on it."
Draper also pointed out that "(if) we do something that makes it impossible, or very expensive, to bum coal in the U.S., we’ll not only turn over plants that have not lived their useful life, but we’ll have to replace them with something else. "
The major concern among the industries is the price of converting to current technology because in a few more years even more efficient processes will be developed to reduce greenhouse gases and the cost of converting again rather than just once is unreasonable,
Alternative Energy Sources
Alternative sources of energy that industries have to choose from are, solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, nuclear and natural gases. The use of each of these energy sources depends on what part of the U.S. the industry operates. For example, solar energy is a viable option for industries that operate in the southwestern U.S. These alternative energy sources are becoming less and less costly as technology improves.
What about the Workers?
As industries prepare for the major expenditures of converting to other means of production, many American jobs hang in the balance. Eventually industries will need to turn to laying off workers in order to pay for the conversion. After and during this change, many new workers will be hired to operate and install the new equipment.
This complete change in work force disturbs the unity within the company at a most inopportune time. It also can create major opposition by the laid off workers at a time that the company needs public support.
Another aspect of these regulations influencing industry may lead to the company relocating to another country where there are no emission regulations. This will also cost a great number of jobs. Not many workers will be able or willing to move their family to another country.
The concerns for the American worker are slowly being recognized. Draper explains that, "(w)e have dealings with miners and the workers in our utility operation, and both groups are concerned about what it means if we’re no longer allowed to bum coal."
A study conducted by the Argonne National Laboratory for the Department of Energy concluded that, "thousands of jobs will be lost if a proposed global warming treaty is ratified."
Another estimation of job loss comes from the Executive Director of the Global Climate Coalition, John Schlaes, who claims that the regulations could eliminate millions of American jobs. Most sources estimate job loss at approximately one million.
Vice President and Project Manager of an economic consulting company, WEFA, Mary Novak said that, "...it is important to recognize that energy-producing states ... will suffer a disproportionate share of the burden" when industries convert to alternative energy sources.
Louisiana is one of these states that has an oil based economy that would be significantly altered if the proposed regulations are passed. Jobs and businesses will be lost if a regulation, of any magnitude, is passed control the emission of fossil fuels. Other states that will be affected by the proposed regulations are Texas, Wyoming, Montana and West Virginia.
Re-education Programs for Job Re-classification
The Clinton proposal does include a commitment "to working with labor and Congress to insure that we give proper assistance to any workers dislocated by the changes in energy usage inherent in any climate change plan." The question is, how?
One way industry can maintain unity in the workplace and avoid public scrutiny is to provide programs for their workers to be re-educated in the replacement technology. Since the industry will not be able to support as many workers, other educational programs can be geared towards new jobs.
This is a viable option because many workers can be trained to make and install new apparatus easily and at virtually no cost to the company. One person can learn how to operate the new equipment and then teach it to the workers during a company meeting.
Some workers will remain in the original production until that power is not usable and then be transferred and trained in the new technology. To accommodate for the workers who choose to move on with their careers, a program can be established at a local community college. Sometimes the retraining is so intense that classes are needed for the workers that stay with the company and these classes can also be held at the community college.
Funding for these programs should be covered by the federal government because part of Clinton’s plan states that workers will be taken care of if they lose their jobs. If for some reason this part of the plan is lost in the passage of the regulations, there are ways to raise money and provide workers with an education. Industries as well as their workers can make the issue public and set up an education fund and accept donations. The key is getting the public involved. The media is the best way to do this. If word gets out that because the industry they work for cannot afford to retrain them, many people will get involved because the overall economy of the community is affected. Teachers may conduct free seminars or workshops’ and a contract may be made with a local community college at minimal cost or as a loan until the industry gets back on its feet after the conversion.
For many workers this will be a great opportunity to move on with their careers and to explore other options that they would never have a chance to otherwise. The factory is not always what workers want as a permanent career. Some thought that it would just be temporary, others followed the footsteps of a family member out of respect and some may have needed the job to support a family and now cannot afford to quit to find a job that they would prefer.
Many jobs will also be created during the implementation of alternative energy sources. New corporations that specialize in these technologies will need workers to help run the new businesses.
Re-education programs for job reclassification are a way industry can accommodate for their workers in a time of change that will benefit both participants in the long run.
Industries know that a big change in production is upon them because of global warming. The key is to keep the industry together and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide. Cooperation is needed worldwide to make a significant change for our future. Global warming is one of the main pollution factors that we face today and if we can overcome this problem by converting our major industries from coal burning to alternative sources of energy without displacing over one million American workers will be off to a promising start.
References
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Gelbspan, Ross, The Heat is On Addison-Wesley Publishing Company Inc., Menlo Park. Ca., 1997.
"Global warming costs, benefits debated," The Oil and Gas Journal, Oct. 6, 1997, p3 6(2).
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